Minds in the 21st century.

When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong.

Arthur C. Clarke's 1 law.


At the present rate of progress, it is almost impossible to imagine any technical feat that cannot be achieved - if it can be achieved at all - within the next few hundred years.

Arthur C. Clarke, 1983.

Friday, March 12, 2010

Future predictions

At the Long Now site one finds a wonderful collection of predictions about the future.Super AI computers by 2029 - or not? Voice recognition software that index all your conversations by 2020?AI computer virus by 2040? Bio terror by 2020? Immortal men and mice by 2040? ET phones home by 2050?

My favourite bets from the Long Now list:
- By 2029 no computer - or "machine intelligence" - will have passed the Turing Test.
- By 2050 no synthetic computer - or "machine intelligence" - will have become truly self-aware (ie. will become conscious). Prediction by Nova Spivack. My Notes: Go - Ray Kurzweil ....
- In 2108, an independent, sentient artificial intelligence will exist as a corporation, both providing its services as well as making all financial and strategic decisions.
- By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.
- That by 2020 a wearable device will be available that will use voice recognition capability and high-volume storage to monitor and index conversations you have or conversations which occur in your vicinity for later searching as supplemental memory. Prediction by Gregory W. Webster. My Notes: Thats a nice little Google project for you ....
- By the year 2040, AI will appear on computer viruses that will communicate with each other using a universal Internet language and will be programmed to fuse together and mutate into Computer Organs that will later be controlled by powerful search engines (Systems) diffused through out the Internet.
- On or before 8 June 2030, there will exist a computer language or programming system in which the prototypical first program, traditionally called "Hello, world!", will have an executable file whose size exceeds 1 gigabyte. My Notes: Horrible, but probably true....
- By 2020, bioterror or bioerror will lead to one million casualties in a single event.
- By 2040, at least 40% of Americans making it to age 65 will live to age 100.
- Immortal mice by 2015.
- After 2002, Evidence of extraterrestrial intelligence within the solar system will be confirmed before evidence from several light-years away.
- By 2050, we will receive intelligent signals from outside our solar system, Prediction by Paul Hawken.
- Technocrat will become a political party by 2020, Prediction by Steve Hockenyos.
- By 2050 the tallest free or non-free standing structure in the world will reach over 10 kilometers in height. My Notes: Makes little sense. But then again. The Burj Dubai doesn't make much sense either.
- No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050. My Notes: Hopefully not so! Hopefully humans will go to Mars much sooner! Gonna be a tough ride though !

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